“We’re in an era when almost every election is determined by two, three, maybe four points,” Daniller said. Among rural voters, for example, Republican candidates earned support from 97 percent who supported them in 2018, while Democrats held onto only 91 percent. But Daniller noted that, of those voters who changed their preferences between 20, Republicans gained ground particularly with rural voters and with white, non-college-educated voters. The report also found that the vast majority of voters stuck with their partisan preferences, with just 6 percent crossing party lines between midterm elections. “By the same token, there are some Hispanic voters who went to vote in 2018, and had they voted in 2022, might have been inclined to stick with the Democrats-but they didn’t actually turn out in 2022.” “Our interpretation is that Hispanic voters who tend to be Republican voters may not have shown up in 2018, but did show up in 2022,” said Daniller. This was due not to changes in party affiliation, but to “asymmetric changes in voter turnout,” according to the report. Hispanic voters continued to support Democrats in 2022, but by a much smaller margin than in 2018. The report sheds further light on some of the narratives that have recently swirled among the political commentariat: the idea, for example, that Republicans are making gains with Hispanic voters, who have historically supported Democrats. “Those are the kinds of things, if we assume turnout is the biggest factor here, that the parties probably need to focus on if they want to do well in the next election,” Daniller continued. While these results “are not shocking revelations,” they further confirm that Democrats need to turn out women in greater numbers relative to men, and younger voters compared to older voters, for example. “This report offers, to some degree, some guidance to the parties about who they need to turn out if they hope to win,” said Andrew Daniller, a research associate at Pew Research Center. Democrats will have to hope it won’t be too divided. Now, it’s early, it’s just one poll, and all the other caveats, but Gutierrez’s entrance means this will likely be a divided primary. Polling is sparse but a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll from May found Allred leading the primary field with 33 percent and then Gutierrez with 22 percent. Luckily they’re still running against Ted Cruz. This is going to have people pick sides and more dangerously it’s going to put people on the sidelines. They need to learn how to get along and to start winning-this doesn’t help that. And you don’t have time for that right now. Texas is fighting to pull everybody to get to the top but they pull each other down in order to do it. You gotta get groups on board-and by the way Texas is a crab bucket. One veteran Democratic campaign manager who’s worked in Texas put it this way:īoth of these campaigns are going to have to be splitting their attention to do a lot of work.… There’s enough factions in Texas right now. Then again, this is Texas, the reddest of the red states and divided primaries do affect the outcome of an election.
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